Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Phil H's avatar

All of those administrative and metadata and peripheral problems with AI systems... I'm not sure I buy that story. Because all of those things are fixable, slowly but surely. The problem is that the AI isn't worth it yet. Even when it performs at its best, it's not massively outperforming radiologists, which is what it would need to do to motivate everyone to fix the little problems.

The issue is that radiologists are pretty good at their jobs. They are not the big problem in medicine, and AI choosing to compete with those guys is just an example of looking for your car keys under the streetlight. AI is relatively good at image data, so they thought they'd try their hand at radiology; but in practical terms no one needs Google to do that.

The big entry of AI into medicine will come when AI offers a killer app that doctors can't currently do well. It might be very early diagnosis of disease from changes in lifestyle noticed by a phone or wearable. Or micro-keyhole surgery. Or something else I can't even imagine yet. But AI engines at the moment are just like the very earliest steam engines: not actually able to go faster than a horse. Definitely worth investing in as a long-term project, but the answer to the question "why isn't this technology in widespread use?" is not because hospital data isn't tidy enough. It's because we already have horses.

Expand full comment
howard8888's avatar

Excellent article, but few people will want to believe it. From a view on the ground interacting with colleagues, the overwhelming belief among medical personnel is that AI is coming and in fact Hinton will be right, while you have old-timers who don't accept EMRs and are skeptical for unknown reasons about AI and say it won't work but really for vague reasons so sort of invalid logic. The problem is the big lie equating deep learning with AI. Deep learning is not AI and never will be. It is incapable of causal reasoning. You can force solutions via brute strength (to wit, self-driving applications and possibly CXR's and Pap smears, etc) but until real AI is developed (eg, my work but I won't give a narcissistic plug for it) you will need human doctors. No one will want to read or believe what you wrote above, but it is true.

Expand full comment
15 more comments...

No posts